Why Territorians Are Locked Out of Affordable Homes

The Northern Territory’s housing crisis is a slow-motion disaster, squeezing families in Darwin and Alice Springs while leaving remote communities in a perpetual bind. In a land where the horizon stretches endlessly, affordable homes are as scarce as rain in the Red Centre. Median rents in Darwin hit $620 per week in 2024, up 12% in a year, while Alice Springs isn’t far behind at $580. With vacancy rates below 2% and public housing waitlists stretching to 5,000, Territorians are caught in a vice of high demand and low supply. As the 2025 federal election looms, political parties offer solutions, but their promises must be judged against reason, history, and the Territory’s harsh realities. Let’s unpack the candidates, sifting through what works, what doesn’t, and what the past teaches us.

The Coalition and CLP, grounded in a philosophy of individual empowerment, propose letting first-home buyers tap superannuation for deposits, up to $50,000 per person, and pledge infrastructure spending to unlock 500,000 new homes nationwide, with a slice for the NT. They argue this boosts supply and choice, especially in Darwin, where population growth outpaces construction. They also back tax incentives for investors to build rentals in Alice Springs, claiming it’ll ease rental pressure. History offers a mixed verdict, a similar super-for-housing scheme in 2017 drove up prices in cities like Sydney by 9% as demand surged, with little relief for renters. Bad immigration policy can suck up supply faster than investors can meet demand. Infrastructure promises also often falter in the NT, think of the 2015 federal plan for 2,000 new homes that delivered just 600 due to red tape and labour shortages. The Coalition’s approach might spur some building, but it risks inflating prices and neglecting remote areas where land is plentiful, but services are not.

Federal and Territory Labor focus on supply-side intervention, pledging $10 billion for social and affordable housing, aiming for 20,000 new homes nationally, with 2,000 earmarked for the NT. They also push (taxpayer funded) rent assistance increases, up to $100 fortnightly for low-income families, and a shared equity scheme for first buyers. Labor’s vision prioritises equity, aiming to house the most vulnerable, like Indigenous families in remote communities where overcrowding affects 40% of households. But their track record is awful. A 2023 housing fund promised 4,000 NT homes but has built few, stymied by construction costs and logistics. Rent assistance helps, as seen in 2020 when a $50 boost cut evictions by 15%, but it doesn’t address supply. Labor’s plans sound noble, but without tackling the NT’s building challenges, like $400,000-per-house costs in remote areas, they will fail yet again. Worse, public housing is too often handed out without expectations, no work requirement, no behavioural clauses, and no path to private transition. It’s a one-way ticket into a system that punishes upward mobility and rewards dysfunction. And all the while, landlords exit the private rental market due to excessive regulation, leaving fewer homes for working families who don’t qualify for handouts but can’t afford skyrocketing rents.

The Greens approach housing as a moral crusade, not an economic problem. The Greens, animated by a collectivist ethos, advocate a radical shift, to freeze rents for two years, build 50,000 public homes nationwide (5,000 for the NT), and tax vacant properties to force them onto the market. They argue this would cool Darwin’s rental market and house Alice Springs’ homeless, where 600 people lack shelter. Rent freezes have precedent, Victoria’s 2020 COVID-era cap held rents steady but deterred landlords, shrinking rental stock by over 8%. Public housing pushes work better, the NT’s 2010 remote housing program built just under 1,000 homes, cutting overcrowding by 20%.  At over $300,000 per home it cost double the building costs per sqm compared to private housing. But the Greens’ tax on vacant homes could backfire in the NT, where many “vacant” properties are seasonal or tied to mining. Their ideas aim high but stumble on practicalities. The Greens fail to grasp that housing is not just a human right, it is also a product of effort, risk, and return. When the risk outweighs the return, supply disappears. Their rhetoric punishes those who provide and subsidises those who take.

Phil Scott, the teal independent, offers a localized fix, federal grants for community-led housing projects, prioritising Indigenous cooperatives, and streamlining approvals for modular homes in Alice Springs. He also backs freight taxpayer funded subsidies to lower building material costs, which can hit $50,000 extra per home in remote areas. Scott’s approach draws on what he calls successes like the 2019 Tennant Creek modular housing pilot, which built 50 homes 30% cheaper than traditional methods. Travel out to Barunga and other communities and the evidence is clear, many of these products are not fit for purpose as many sit vacant, damaged and destroyed by the occupants. His reliance on federal funding and coordination with Canberra could falter progress, as past NT independents have learned when promises from the capital evaporate. Teal ideology is bureaucratic optimism cloaked in independence. But central planning with glossy reports still fails when it forgets that builders, not committees, build homes, and families, not frameworks, live in them.

One Nation takes a blunt tack, cap immigration to ease housing demand and redirect $5 billion from foreign aid to build NT homes. They claim immigration drives Darwin’s population boom, up 5% in 2024, fuelling the crisis. Redirecting foreign aid might fund a few homes, but it ignores the NT’s deeper issues, high build costs and a lack of skilled labour. One Nation’s housing platform is simple, to cut immigration, reduce land tax, and give local developers breathing room. They are mocked for being unrefined, yet they hit at a truth the others avoid, demand pressure and regulation are the twin killers of affordability.

Their call to preference local workers in construction, fast-track rural development, and limit overseas buyers appeals to those watching home ownership become a fading dream. But One Nation often fails to articulate how to balance these ideas with investment needs and long-term planning.

Their strength lies in understanding that affordability starts with restraint, restraint in bureaucracy, restraint in foreign ownership, and restraint in top-down planning that strangles initiative. However, their inability to effectively articulate this in a compassionate way will deter support.

The housing crisis in the NT isn’t just numbers, it’s lives. In Darwin, families double up in rentals, in Alice Springs, the homeless camp in riverbeds, in remote communities, 15 to 18 people share three-bedroom homes. Data shows 37% of Territorians cite housing as their top issue, up 5% since 2022. Past policies, super withdrawals, rent caps, or housing funds, have nibbled at the edges but never cracked the core. Building in the NT is slow, expensive, and logistically brutal. Real solutions need scale and innovation, modular homes of a better standard, freight subsidies, and training local builders might work if paired with federal muscle. But Canberra’s promises often wither in the desert sun. Territorians deserve more than half-measures, they need a home. From the author.

The opinions and statements are those of Sam Wilks and do not necessarily represent whom Sam Consults or contracts to. Sam Wilks is a skilled and experienced Security and Risk Consultant with 3 decades of expertise in the fields of Real estate, Security, and the hospitality/gaming industry. Sam has trained over 1,000 entry level security personnel, taught defensive tactics, weapons training and handcuffs to policing personnel and the public. His knowledge and practical experience have made him a valuable asset to many organisations looking to enhance their security measures and provide a safe and secure environment for their clients and staff.